America’s future lies in the balance. It lies in the balance because of the COVID-19 pandemic. What do I mean by this? Let me explain by using a simple illustration.

The Current Situation

I view the situation that we face today, like the scales of a balance. On one side of the scale, for example, are my fellow citizens that are dying from the coronavirus. We can measure these numbers with reasonable accuracy, but not with total precision. On the other side of the balance are all the costs associated with shutting down America’s economy. The magnitude of these costs—economic, social, and the loss of life as well from suicide, depression, and excessive drinking—is beyond the ken of anyone. How is anyone to assess these costs rationally? I do not believe it is possible. Instead, it becomes a judgment call, but a judgment call of extraordinary import.

No one in a leadership position in our country has the knowledge and experience to assess both sides of the balance scale unerringly. How many deaths will occur is unknown at this time regardless of what model we use? As an aside, models are, at best, not a very useful tool unless the internal design of the model is as simple as possible. The more variables and the more complexity, the less robust the model is, and the potential for wide swings in results due to changes in one or more variables.

The Balance Scale

The balance scale represents the decision before the nation: keep the economy shut down entirely or jump-start the economy. The latter option requires that we continue to mitigate the virus as effectively as possible, using best practices for infection control. This critical decision has to be made at some point, and the decider is President Trump. It is probably the most challenging decision any modern president has had to make because it directly affects 330 million people in our country and without any differentiation whatsoever. This decision is without precedent, and it may be the unifying event that America requires. Let’s hope that President Trump’s instincts are on the mark.

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